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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mira · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 15 games
33%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Sancity · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 275 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 455 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 370 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
302 picks · 414 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 463 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
290 picks · 507 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:29
Team Spirit 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 53:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
51% · 322 games46% · 209 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
52% · 232 games49% · 288 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Kunkka
KunkkaMalik
50% · 335 games45% · 278 games
PangolierSancity
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
49% · 151 game48% · 146 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
60% · 119 games
Naga SirenPuppey
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct22:13
Team Spirit 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSatanic
46% · 229 games56% · 174 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaMalik
51% · 211 games55% · 135 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
43% · 94 games47% · 51 game
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Bristleback
BristlebackMiposhka
44% · 53 games54% · 73 games
LeshracZayac
Leshrac
51% · 154 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct26:14
Team Spirit 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSatanic
59% · 67 games47% · 123 games
WindrangerYuragi
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
50% · 370 games44% · 160 games
KunkkaBOOM
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerLarl
50% · 114 games50% · 119 games
Templar AssassinSancity
Templar Assassin
Bane
BaneMiposhka
51% · 81 game50% · 130 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
48% · 100 games
LionZayac
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3