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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 15 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 14 games
50%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
375 picks · 609 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 567 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
366 picks · 291 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
348 picks · 720 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
331 picks · 345 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 196 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Team Spirit 76%Night Pulse 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
48% · 130 games57% · 82 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
68% · 45 games40% · 118 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
49% · 148 games45% · 101 game
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Tiny
TinyMira
51% · 143 games42% · 222 games
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Chen
ChenMiposhka
65% · 57 games
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Team Spirit 76%Night Pulse 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLarl
55% · 182 games51% · 439 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
43% · 149 games54% · 253 games
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
47% · 250 games58% · 181 game
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickMira
42% · 380 games53% · 255 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
42% · 167 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2