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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Larl · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 14 games
36%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 17 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 785 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
461 picks · 958 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 601 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
453 picks · 200 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 346 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
446 picks · 708 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 204 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 725 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:27
Team Spirit 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
44% · 72 games56% · 124 games
Naga SirenTimado
Naga Siren
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
54% · 298 games47% · 117 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
48% · 200 games48% · 229 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Tiny
TinyMira
54% · 224 games49% · 342 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
52% · 78 games47% · 60 games
BaneCeb
Bane
Game 2prediction missed55:26
Team Spirit 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
50% · 107 games47% · 185 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Razor
RazorCollapse
42% · 119 games53% · 151 game
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
42% · 66 games52% · 78 games
Monkey Kingbzm
Monkey King
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
56% · 238 games55% · 160 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Io
IoMira
50% · 72 games48% · 28 games
BaneCeb
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2