ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:3series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:3
PARIVISIONwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 38 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 28 games
Tusk
rue · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 31 game
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 28 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 26 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
560 picks · 779 bans
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 814 bans
Muerta
409 picks · 267 bans
Bristleback
392 picks · 818 bans
Phoenix
387 picks · 593 bans
Dragon Knight
366 picks · 841 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 483 bans
Clockwerk
358 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total62% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:19
Team Spirit 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
MorphlingSatanic
MedusaCollapse
BeastmasterDM
EarthshakerLarl
TinyNo[o]ne
Bounty Hunterrue
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
SilencerMiposhka
Ringmaster9Class
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Team Spirit 55%PARIVISION 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYatoro
Templar AssassinSatanic
TinyLarl
BrewmasterDM
TerrorbladeCollapse
Sand KingNo[o]ne
Bounty Hunterrue
Ringmaster9Class
SilencerMiposhka
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Game 3prediction correct34:16
Team Spirit 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyYatoro
BeastmasterSatanic
LeshracLarl
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Sand KingCollapse
MedusaDM
Tinkerrue
Slark9Class
GrimstrokeMiposhka
TechiesDukalis
Game 4prediction missed12:26
Team Spirit 57%PARIVISION 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYatoro
Templar AssassinSatanic
Monkey KingLarl
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
BristlebackDM
Grimstrokerue
Slark9Class
WarlockMiposhka
JakiroDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 62%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4