The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 31 game
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 23 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 180 bans
Mars
287 picks · 396 bans
Lina
278 picks · 559 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 370 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 255 bans
Hoodwink
241 picks · 88 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 404 bans
Void Spirit
223 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 21%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
Team Spirit 89%SG e-sports 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:11.
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Team Spirit 89%SG e-sports 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2