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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
75%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
SabeRLight- · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 327 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 479 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 397 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 365 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
266 picks · 183 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
261 picks · 144 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
254 picks · 475 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:42
Team Spirit 49%Shopify Rebellion 51%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
50% · 63 games60% · 67 games
WeaverArteezy
Weaver
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
55% · 120 games51% · 135 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorCollapse
44% · 45 games45% · 142 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
47% · 142 games58% · 167 games
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Tusk
TuskMira
39% · 141 game
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Team Spirit 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
52% · 98 games45% · 163 games
LunaArteezy
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
50% · 183 games50% · 244 games
TimbersawYopaj
Timbersaw
Kunkka
KunkkaCollapse
54% · 130 games47% · 188 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderMiposhka
53% · 196 games51% · 206 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionMira
51% · 194 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2