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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 42 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
55%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Skem · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
354 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
336 picks · 446 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 511 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 596 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 331 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:9
Team Spirit 50%Shopify Rebellion 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
48% · 39 games47% · 271 game
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
46% · 87 games51% · 99 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
54% · 134 games44% · 90 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
52% · 274 games58% · 67 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Batrider
Batriderrue
47% · 288 games52% · 295 games
GyrocopterHellscream
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct23:41
Team Spirit 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
48% · 145 games52% · 132 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
47% · 102 games48% · 174 games
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Invoker
InvokerLarl
48% · 137 games53% · 197 games
MagnusYopaj
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
52% · 165 games53% · 179 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Lion
Lionrue
49% · 223 games51% · 90 games
Ogre MagiSkem
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2