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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%

Talon Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 24 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
57%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 22 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
471 picks · 512 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
471 picks · 502 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
393 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 363 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
361 picks · 765 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 528 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 236 bans
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
329 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Team Spirit 71%Talon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYatoro
50% · 43 games53% · 137 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
55% · 300 games48% · 216 games
Bristleback23savage
Bristleback
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
56% · 211 games46% · 306 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
48% · 89 games45% · 112 games
MarciJhocam
Marci
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
50% · 232 games49% · 104 games
SilencerKuku
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct46:17
Team Spirit 71%Talon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
46% · 181 game51% · 140 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
58% · 238 games46% · 217 games
Doom23savage
Doom
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
59% · 257 games50% · 215 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
50% · 287 games43% · 357 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
58% · 12 games43% · 46 games
DazzleKuku
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2