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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Aureusloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Miposhka · 12 games
58%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 17 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 14 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 299 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
523 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1081 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 186 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 588 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 259 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Team Spirit 69%Team Aureus 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYatoro
52% · 197 games54% · 174 games
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Dragon Knight
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
52% · 138 games45% · 242 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
55% · 136 games48% · 134 games
Sand KingForce
Sand King
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPanto
60% · 131 game46% · 16 games
GrimstrokeTims
Grimstroke
Disruptor
Disruptorrue
44% · 220 games42% · 256 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1