The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Empireloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 25 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Team Empire
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 14 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
Petushara · 11 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
Tusksignature
sayuw · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
457 picks · 195 bans
Mars
398 picks · 601 bans
Puck
396 picks · 899 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 326 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 242 bans
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 417 bans
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:21
Team Spirit 62%Team Empire 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
Naga SirenSmiling Knight
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Linakiyotaka
AxeCollapse
TimbersawPetushara
MiranaMira
Hoodwinksayuw
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
OracleVANSKOR
Game 2prediction missed17:32
Team Spirit 59%Team Empire 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Empire in 52:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
LunaYatoro
Invokerkiyotaka
UnderlordCollapse
Miranasayuw
PhoenixMira
Dragon KnightPetushara
HoodwinkMiposhka
SnapfireVANSKOR
Game 3prediction missed27:31
Team Spirit 62%Team Empire 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Empire in 54:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYatoro
Phantom LancerSmiling Knight
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Puckkiyotaka
Night StalkerCollapse
Linasayuw
HoodwinkMira
AxePetushara
Winter WyvernMiposhka
SnapfireVANSKOR
Game 4prediction correct29:15
Team Spirit 59%Team Empire 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYatoro
Phantom LancerSmiling Knight
LeshracTORONTOTOKYO
Invokerkiyotaka
MarsCollapse
TimbersawPetushara
MiranaMira
Enchantresssayuw
LionMiposhka
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
Game 5prediction correct28:13
Team Spirit 60%Team Empire 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYatoro
SpectreSmiling Knight
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Invokerkiyotaka
AxeCollapse
KunkkaPetushara
LionMiposhka
Hoodwinksayuw
Dark WillowMira
EnchantressVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5