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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 13 games
85%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 10 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 10 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
75%

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
61%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 11 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Boxi · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 318 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 311 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
322 picks · 484 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 381 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
254 picks · 328 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
253 picks · 171 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
252 picks · 142 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
250 picks · 460 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Team Spirit 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
52% · 191 game58% · 54 games
Troll WarlordmiCKe
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCollapse
43% · 216 games51% · 152 games
TimbersawNisha
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckLarl
50% · 193 games56% · 194 games
Doom33
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
46% · 198 games48% · 328 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
57% · 93 games44% · 163 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct31:28
Team Spirit 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYatoro
54% · 212 games58% · 41 game
SniperNisha
Sniper
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
47% · 191 game53% · 308 games
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCollapse
43% · 174 games43% · 57 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Tusk
TuskMira
44% · 201 game61% · 231 game
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
44% · 273 games51% · 414 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2