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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 40 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 31 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 29 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 28 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
79%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 22 games
82%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
y` · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
474 picks · 704 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 752 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
360 picks · 365 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
354 picks · 211 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 637 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
335 picks · 661 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 423 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 482 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Team Spirit 65%Team Tidebound 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYatoro
54% · 273 games52% · 155 games
Templar Assassinshiro
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
48% · 102 games47% · 162 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
51% · 186 games48% · 164 games
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
48% · 124 games58% · 39 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
42% · 80 games52% · 245 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Team Spirit 66%Team Tidebound 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
49% · 399 games45% · 351 game
Beastmastershiro
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
50% · 310 games59% · 234 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
53% · 220 games49% · 331 game
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
Jakirorue
45% · 321 game54% · 131 game
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneMiposhka
48% · 50 games48% · 253 games
Windrangery`
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2