The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
TSM
Tiny
bryle- · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
Chenoften banned
DuBu · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
513 picks · 398 bans
Marci
453 picks · 693 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 466 bans
Puck
288 picks · 698 bans
Undying
281 picks · 484 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 399 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 866 bans
Enigma
252 picks · 822 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 32%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:45
Team Spirit 54%TSM 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by TSM in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
Naga SirenTimado
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow Fiendbryle-
SlardarCollapse
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
MarciMira
UndyingDuBu
BaneMiposhka
Crystal MaidenMoonMeander
Game 2prediction correct27:18
Team Spirit 58%TSM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
Lone DruidTimado
MarsCollapse
Shadow Fiendbryle-
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
SnapfireMira
Crystal MaidenMoonMeander
EnchantressMiposhka
UndyingDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2