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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
88%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 12 games
92%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
67%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 11 games
82%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 11 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 499 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 169 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
293 picks · 231 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
281 picks · 632 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 392 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 727 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
225 picks · 308 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
222 picks · 140 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Team Spirit 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
47% · 127 games50% · 126 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 145 games49% · 79 games
Doom33
Doom
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCollapse
43% · 60 games52% · 143 games
BatriderNine
Batrider
Weaver
WeaverMiposhka
54% · 192 games48% · 158 games
RubickSneyking
Rubick
Monkey King
Monkey KingMira
51% · 153 games53% · 171 game
BaneFata
Bane
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Team Spirit 64%Tundra Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 198 games44% · 192 games
LeshracNine
Leshrac
Luna
LunaYatoro
49% · 166 games53% · 136 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 342 games43% · 346 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
48% · 147 games54% · 156 games
IoSneyking
Io
Bane
BaneMiposhka
61% · 143 games43% · 166 games
GyrocopterFata
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2