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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
68%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
89%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 17 games
65%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 34 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 30 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 22 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 393 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
357 picks · 191 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 343 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 839 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
278 picks · 214 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
274 picks · 616 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 384 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:22
Team Spirit 65%Tundra Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
57% · 198 games48% · 119 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
55% · 340 games49% · 257 games
Doom33
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
51% · 149 games45% · 227 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
53% · 166 games55% · 196 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
45% · 103 games40% · 157 games
WarlockTobi
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Team Spirit 65%Tundra Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
47% · 123 games55% · 137 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLarl
42% · 132 games44% · 64 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
51% · 152 games53% · 262 games
Doom33
Doom
Pugna
Pugnarue
53% · 186 games48% · 222 games
PhoenixSaksa
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
53% · 222 games52% · 130 games
BaneTobi
Bane
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Team Spirit 64%Tundra Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
49% · 18 games54% · 15 games
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Faceless Void
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
59% · 233 games43% · 283 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
54% · 246 games46% · 54 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Chen
ChenMiposhka
60% · 89 games48% · 156 games
PugnaTobi
Pugna
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
38% · 101 game52% · 179 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3