?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 11 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
70%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
545 picks · 457 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
442 picks · 685 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 542 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 280 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 578 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 810 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 535 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 627 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:26
Team Spirit 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYatoro
38% · 199 games58% · 154 games
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
Templar Assassin
Zeus
ZeusTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 39 games60% · 114 games
Queen of PaingpK~
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaCollapse
55% · 46 games48% · 92 games
TimbersawDM
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 151 game43% · 14 games
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
51% · 123 games48% · 184 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct15:46
Team Spirit 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
52% · 60 games51% · 126 games
RazorRAMZES666
Razor
Puck
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
54% · 209 games53% · 58 games
ZeusgpK~
Zeus
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
62% · 33 games57% · 46 games
LycanDM
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMiposhka
43% · 74 games42% · 192 games
Dragon Knightyamich
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMira
42% · 111 games56% · 65 games
Ogre MagiXakoda
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2