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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
43%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 27 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 18 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
53%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 608 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 739 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 155 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 532 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 311 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 709 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 543 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:7
Team Spirit 55%Virtus.pro 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYatoro
46% · 148 games44% · 193 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
51% · 245 games52% · 157 games
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 224 games51% · 180 games
Dragon KnightNoticed
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
53% · 149 games50% · 253 games
TechiesAntares
Techies
Io
IoMira
51% · 83 games58% · 66 games
BaneFng
Bane
Game 2prediction correct41:21
Team Spirit 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
47% · 186 games57% · 135 games
Naga SirenKiritych
Naga Siren
Sniper
SniperLarl
58% · 34 games48% · 153 games
RazorSquad1x
Razor
Doom
DoomCollapse
51% · 233 games48% · 211 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
42% · 147 games46% · 237 games
EnchantressFng
Enchantress
Batrider
BatriderMiposhka
56% · 320 games51% · 184 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2