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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 35 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 31 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 21 game
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 22 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 19 games
74%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 18 games
83%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 643 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
470 picks · 424 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
403 picks · 857 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
391 picks · 444 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 336 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 835 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
Team Spirit 78%Wildcard Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
49% · 132 games46% · 262 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsYatoro
46% · 89 games59% · 136 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Puck
PuckLarl
46% · 186 games50% · 114 games
Void SpiritRCY
Void Spirit
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
42% · 110 games54% · 40 games
Chaos KnightBignum
Chaos Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanrue
46% · 129 games62% · 94 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Team Spirit 80%Wildcard Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
55% · 181 game49% · 147 games
SvenYamSun
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
46% · 113 games49% · 258 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Axe
AxeCollapse
51% · 44 games48% · 97 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
49% · 275 games44% · 46 games
DisruptorSpeeed
Disruptor
Riki
Rikirue
50% · 57 games56% · 122 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct30:5
Team Spirit 81%Wildcard Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
46% · 151 game47% · 281 game
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
53% · 263 games45% · 198 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
54% · 190 games54% · 241 game
MagnusFayde
Magnus
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMiposhka
59% · 135 games45% · 128 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Muerta
Muertarue
51% · 352 games46% · 243 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 93%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3