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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 28 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
94%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 17 games
65%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 29 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Poloson · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
Ame · 22 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 21 game
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
444 picks · 415 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
361 picks · 194 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 346 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 804 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 846 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
286 picks · 393 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
282 picks · 221 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
278 picks · 536 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
Team Spirit 66%Xtreme Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
48% · 62 games58% · 53 games
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
50% · 52 games42% · 96 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
49% · 139 games49% · 111 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Bane
Banerue
55% · 62 games64% · 6 games
Spirit BreakerXinQ
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
49% · 57 games52% · 106 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct14:9
Team Spirit 68%Xtreme Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
55% · 147 games45% · 8 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
48% · 100 games50% · 305 games
PuckXm
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
55% · 147 games44% · 136 games
AxeXxs
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
55% · 196 games50% · 129 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Bane
Banerue
55% · 110 games42% · 122 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed18:37
Team Spirit 66%Xtreme Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
33% · 8 games46% · 21 game
Anti-MageAme
Anti-Mage
Snapfire
SnapfireLarl
47% · 103 games46% · 132 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 158 games47% · 308 games
BatriderXxs
Batrider
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
55% · 326 games54% · 313 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
56% · 221 game48% · 42 games
BanexNova
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3