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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
emptiness · 3 games
100%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Infernal · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
100%

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 12 games
17%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 9 games
22%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 9 games
11%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Yuragi · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
492 picks · 332 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 468 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 511 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 493 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
308 picks · 644 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 304 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
265 picks · 188 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
261 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 35%
Hero pool strength59% Team Synapse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:36
Team Synapse 57%PuckChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawInfernal
54% · 222 games52% · 237 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
42% · 205 games55% · 154 games
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkemptiness
50% · 638 games55% · 289 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
50% · 245 games
DisruptorHyugadoto
Disruptor
45% · 140 games
TechiesGothic-
Techies
Game 2prediction missed33:62
Team Synapse 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:04:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerInfernal
48% · 132 games53% · 31 game
SvenYuragi
Sven
Mirana
Miranaemptiness
47% · 182 games60% · 101 game
Ember Spiritспортик
Ember Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJeezy
51% · 77 games45% · 26 games
Lycankrol9ash
Lycan
53% · 167 games
HoodwinkHyugadoto
Hoodwink
44% · 66 games
WindrangerGothic-
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct1:1
Team Synapse 59%PuckChamp 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
52% · 101 game54% · 70 games
Sand Kingспортик
Sand King
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoremptiness
58% · 187 games44% · 150 games
Shadow FiendYuragi
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJeezy
53% · 339 games43% · 114 games
Largokrol9ash
Largo
43% · 40 games
MiranaGothic-
Mirana
46% · 253 games
TuskHyugadoto
Tusk
Game 4prediction correct22:51
Team Synapse 61%PuckChamp 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 23:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 61%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4