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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jeezy · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
33%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
bengan · 6 games
83%

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 29 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
53%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 291 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
367 picks · 161 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
359 picks · 160 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 481 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 303 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 472 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
290 picks · 270 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 369 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:18
Team Synapse 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTA2000
50% · 71 game52% · 60 games
Lycanmangekyou
Lycan
Largo
Largoemptiness
52% · 168 games52% · 124 games
KezShigetsu
Kez
Techies
TechiesJeezy
51% · 99 games40% · 42 games
EarthshakerRain
Earthshaker
Dazzle
Dazzlebengan
54% · 96 games46% · 148 games
Dark Willowprblms
Dark Willow
50% · 60 games
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct32:45
Team Synapse 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:03:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTA2000
55% · 72 games52% · 68 games
ClinkzShigetsu
Clinkz
Largo
Largoemptiness
50% · 170 games45% · 93 games
Dark Seermangekyou
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
49% · 145 games51% · 41 game
HuskarRain
Huskar
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
48% · 43 games50% · 87 games
Techiesprblms
Techies
50% · 141 game
ClockwerkXakoda
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed41:22
Team Synapse 38%Yellow Submarine 62%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezTA2000
49% · 197 games57% · 111 games
Nature's ProphetShigetsu
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
Kunkkaemptiness
46% · 51 game51% · 285 games
Ember SpiritRain
Ember Spirit
Bane
Banebengan
54% · 180 games51% · 135 games
Batridermangekyou
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
43% · 246 games49% · 72 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
53% · 71 game
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 68%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3