UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Synapse
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 22 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 13 games
Mirana
emptiness · 10 games
Dazzlesignature
bengan · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 8 games
Techiessignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Baneoften banned
bengan · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
Yellow Submarine
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 32 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 19 games
Hoodwink
prblms · 19 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 19 games
Batrider
not me · 16 games
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Pangolier
Rain · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
536 picks · 318 bans
Dark Willow
435 picks · 200 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 173 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 510 bans
Winter Wyvern
333 picks · 307 bans
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 313 bans
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
286 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:30
Team Synapse 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 52:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerTA2000
Nature's Prophetrincyq
Dawnbreakeremptiness
Dragon KnightRain
MarciMikey
Batridermangekyou
Dark WillowJeezy
Hoodwinkaik
Winter Wyvernbengan
Nyx Assassinprblms
Game 2prediction correct37:20
Team Synapse 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 42:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosTA2000
Svenrincyq
InvokerMikey
EarthshakerRain
Marsemptiness
Brewmastermangekyou
Dark WillowJeezy
Techiesaik
Witch Doctorbengan
Windrangerprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 61%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2