?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyeloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Türkiye

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jeezy · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
80%
Lich
Lich
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
33%

Dragon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 26 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
52%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 22 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 18 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 17 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
41%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 633 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
463 picks · 525 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 571 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 404 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
347 picks · 261 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
334 picks · 914 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
329 picks · 681 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:21
Team Türkiye 38%Dragon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaG.T.I
41% · 86 games50% · 4 games
SpectreShigetsu
Spectre
Pugna
PugnaJeezy
57% · 91 game50% · 101 game
DoomInfernal
Doom
Disruptor
DisruptorStoic
54% · 42 games49% · 25 games
Queen of PainPanda
Queen of Pain
53% · 72 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
48% · 17 games
LichMary_y
Lich
Game 2prediction correct20:37
Team Türkiye 38%Dragon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerG.T.I
53% · 155 games49% · 68 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
42% · 339 games55% · 111 games
Templar AssassinPanda
Templar Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorStoic
53% · 130 games56% · 87 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
43% · 165 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
51% · 193 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct15:28
Team Türkiye 41%Dragon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 29:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk
TuskG.T.I
45% · 271 game54% · 174 games
MorphlingShigetsu
Morphling
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
47% · 281 game47% · 141 game
PuckPanda
Puck
Lich
LichStoic
48% · 51 game49% · 126 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
57% · 101 game
Pugnaxsvampire
Pugna
59% · 61 game
Ogre MagiMary_y
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 69%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3