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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyeloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Türkiye

Lich
Lich
Stoic · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 6 games
83%
Invoker
Invokersignature
G.T.I · 6 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
31%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 517 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
397 picks · 325 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 384 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 571 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
345 picks · 169 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
339 picks · 425 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 772 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
318 picks · 469 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:25
Team Türkiye 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 30:55.
Game 2prediction correct44:38
Team Türkiye 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:03:15.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Türkiye 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3