?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 12 games
92%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
10%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 33 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
586 picks · 292 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 520 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1064 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 179 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 582 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 246 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:16
Team Tea 53%eSpoiled 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 26:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShigetsu
57% · 129 games60% · 25 games
Juggernautssnovv1
Juggernaut
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
54% · 129 games45% · 125 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
Marci
MarciCloud
51% · 89 games48% · 232 games
Hoodwinkmrls
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
48% · 114 games49% · 196 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
47% · 117 games
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Team Tea 53%eSpoiled 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
50% · 203 games47% · 192 games
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
53% · 169 games46% · 128 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
53% · 335 games45% · 195 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Pudge
PudgedEsire
54% · 42 games47% · 371 game
Tinymrls
Tiny
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSoNNeikO
61% · 137 games
Game 3prediction missed13:30
Team Tea 51%eSpoiled 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
56% · 44 games47% · 72 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
57% · 158 games49% · 358 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
50% · 227 games45% · 338 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
46% · 157 games54% · 50 games
Pudgemrls
Pudge
Tusk
TuskdEsire
50% · 232 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 56%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3