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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
10%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
44%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 26 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 20 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 14 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
647 picks · 318 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 569 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 214 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 1147 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 626 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 269 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 399 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
355 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:38
Team Tea 57%Pipsqueak+4 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 47:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
54% · 135 games47% · 368 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
50% · 340 games56% · 394 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCloud
43% · 135 games52% · 192 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertadEsire
47% · 260 games52% · 212 games
SnapfireEkki
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
48% · 369 games50% · 73 games
DazzleKidaro
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed10:23
Team Tea 54%Pipsqueak+4 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 20:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
42% · 213 games55% · 303 games
Nature's ProphetNande
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
47% · 350 games52% · 368 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarCloud
44% · 129 games54% · 42 games
VenomancerPalantimos
Venomancer
Tusk
TuskdEsire
45% · 390 games65% · 202 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
48% · 311 games47% · 478 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 62%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2