CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Snapfire
dEsire · 6 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 5 games
Slardar
Cloud · 5 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Muerta
dEsire · 4 games
Yellow Submarine
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Snapfire
mrls · 21 game
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 20 games
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
444 picks · 419 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 218 bans
Puck
351 picks · 929 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 665 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 854 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:4
Team Tea 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Tea in 22:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageShigetsu
Templar Assassinbottega
MarciCloud
Queen of PainMirele
Void SpiritWorick
Marslaise
EarthshakerdEsire
Tusksayuw
WarlockSoNNeikO
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction missed32:18
Team Tea 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Tea in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanCloud
Broodmotherbottega
AlchemistShigetsu
LeshracMirele
Storm SpiritWorick
Pangolierlaise
TinydEsire
Hoodwinksayuw
PugnaSoNNeikO
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 56%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2