ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team_Team
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
9Pandas
Doomsignature
MieRo · 33 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 32 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 25 games
Rubick
Antares · 24 games
Windranger
kiyotaka · 23 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 90 bans
Grimstroke
202 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
174 picks · 232 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
166 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:26
Team_Team 36%9Pandas 64%
The model gave 64% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidCrystallize
LunaV-Tune
ClinkzMoonlight
Dragon KnightRAMZES666
Primal BeastInfernal
Pangolierkiyotaka
TuskEcNart
WeaverAfoninje
51% · 152 games
EnchantressRodjER
Game 2prediction correct19:38
Team_Team 35%9Pandas 65%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingInfernal
AlchemistRAMZES666
SlarkCrystallize
Zeuskiyotaka
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Templar AssassinV-Tune
GrimstrokeEcNart
Treant ProtectorRodjER
60% · 13 games
BaneAfoninje
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 78%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2