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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 23 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 17 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 17 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 11 games
36%

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
58%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
253 picks · 382 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
251 picks · 364 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
207 picks · 535 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
186 picks · 436 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Team Tickles 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
49% · 78 games56% · 118 games
AlchemistFocus
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 241 game55% · 32 games
Night StalkerStoneBank
Night Stalker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
45% · 123 games45% · 172 games
Primal BeastDendi
Primal Beast
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
50% · 273 games47% · 407 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Io
IoDukalis
62% · 104 games45% · 90 games
EnigmaMary_y
Enigma
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Team Tickles 58%B8 Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
43% · 112 games54% · 199 games
Faceless VoidFocus
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
47% · 181 game49% · 139 games
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
45% · 115 games56% · 56 games
ZeusDendi
Zeus
Tusk
TuskNARMAN
43% · 210 games56% · 141 game
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
Grimstroke
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
51% · 119 games57% · 202 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 68%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2