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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 14 games
93%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 37 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 28 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
54%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 22 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
76%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 693 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
415 picks · 307 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
372 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
370 picks · 980 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
368 picks · 617 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:24
Team Tidebound 43%BETBOOM TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 56:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaFaith_bian
41% · 50 games45% · 142 games
Phantom AssassinPure~
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightshiro
47% · 223 games51% · 250 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
51% · 204 games58% · 196 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
51% · 72 games52% · 112 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
50% · 166 games39% · 15 games
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Team Tidebound 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
46% · 280 games59% · 60 games
Chaos KnightPure~
Chaos Knight
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
49% · 136 games49% · 185 games
Monkey KinggpK~
Monkey King
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
44% · 135 games53% · 180 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Ringmaster
Ringmastery`
29% · 3 games47% · 210 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Night Stalker
Night StalkerpLAnet
53% · 106 games60% · 25 games
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 64%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2