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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Toughloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tough

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 3 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 27 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 22 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 15 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
995 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
645 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 945 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 403 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 422 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
530 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1203 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
504 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:47
Team Tough 48%SPAWN Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaweleven
52% · 170 games51% · 33 games
Naga SirenJikroy
Naga Siren
Riki
Rikiseimei
53% · 123 games52% · 36 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
little data
MuertawoMy
Muerta
46% · 150 games
RubickHyde
Rubick
41% · 74 games
Pangolierdalul
Pangolier
Game 2prediction correct26:44
Team Tough 49%SPAWN Team 51%
The model gave 51% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaeleven
47% · 141 game38% · 4 games
HuskarMamangDaya
Huskar
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightseimei
55% · 218 games58% · 76 games
Monkey KingJikroy
Monkey King
46% · 100 games
Death ProphetwoMy
Death Prophet
48% · 94 games
Clockwerkdalul
Clockwerk
46% · 85 games
HoodwinkHyde
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 54%
Series resultSPAWN Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2