Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionTTTeam Toughloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XERXIAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Viperoften banned
seimei · 1 game
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
918 picks · 620 bans
Tiny
644 picks · 449 bans
Nature's Prophet
544 picks · 873 bans
Treant Protector
539 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
486 picks · 332 bans
Death Prophet
472 picks · 1024 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tough
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Tough
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
Team Tough 51%XERXIA 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tough — the game was taken by XERXIA in 33:39.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Team Tough 51%XERXIA 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Team Tough in 34:07.
Game 3prediction missed18:30
Team Tough 51%XERXIA 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tough — the game was taken by XERXIA in 28:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tough · 51%
Series resultXERXIA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3