The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Undyingwin 3:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 3:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
474 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Mars
366 picks · 592 bans
Puck
358 picks · 879 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 307 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 245 bans
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 440 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Team Undying
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total60% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
Team Undying 60%4 Zoomers 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 45:53.
Game 2prediction missed17:34
Team Undying 60%4 Zoomers 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 44:33.
Game 3prediction missed12:27
Team Undying 60%4 Zoomers 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 32:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 60%
Series resultTeam Undying 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3