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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 3:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:0
1w Teamloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 14 games
86%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 12 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
77%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
kasane · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
676 picks · 324 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
569 picks · 581 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
434 picks · 228 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1161 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 648 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 257 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 401 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
353 picks · 932 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Team Yandex 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
50% · 215 games54% · 273 games
AbaddonMunkushi~
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
51% · 376 games39% · 275 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Marci
MarciNoticed
55% · 211 games40% · 141 game
AxeSSS
Axe
Warlock
WarlockMalady
54% · 358 games51% · 330 games
Batriderswedenstrong
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
55% · 232 games51% · 373 games
Jakirokasane
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct26:23
Team Yandex 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
48% · 304 games50% · 339 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
50% · 147 games55% · 333 games
Nature's ProphetSquad1x
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
49% · 222 games51% · 109 games
UnderlordSSS
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
52% · 384 games45% · 360 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskMalady
48% · 371 game52% · 287 games
Disruptorkasane
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct32:18
Team Yandex 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
51% · 208 games49% · 299 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
53% · 168 games53% · 433 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
49% · 244 games45% · 160 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
50% · 283 games61% · 190 games
Chenkasane
Chen
Tusk
TuskSaksa
42% · 422 games47% · 243 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 65%
Series resultTeam Yandex 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3