PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 34 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 22 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Heroic
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 32 games
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
581 picks · 917 bans
Tusk
479 picks · 419 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 509 bans
Warlock
425 picks · 283 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1039 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 573 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 662 bans
Mars
384 picks · 559 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:39
Team Yandex 56%Heroic 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendWatson
UrsaYuma
BristlebackDM
RazorTaiLung
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
BatriderWisper
MarciSaksa
JakiroThiolicor
DisruptorMalady
WarlockKJ
Game 2prediction missed8:33
Team Yandex 56%Heroic 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidWatson
WindrangerYuma
BeastmasterDM
TinkerTaiLung
ViperChira JUNIOR
BatriderWisper
HoodwinkSaksa
JakiroThiolicor
PhoenixMalady
TuskKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 60%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2