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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 15 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 20 games
45%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 15 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
85%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 12 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
615 picks · 304 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
533 picks · 540 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1106 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
371 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 601 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 158 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 262 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 27%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:6
Team Yandex 81%Natus Vincere Junior 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 20:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeNoticed
42% · 69 games40% · 86 games
Windrangerrubikon155
Windranger
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
54% · 142 games51% · 87 games
Slardarkrol9ash
Slardar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
54% · 252 games49% · 143 games
Earthshakergbc
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
little data53% · 223 games
SnapfireGothic-
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
52% · 269 games49% · 193 games
JakiroHyugadoto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct32:7
Team Yandex 82%Natus Vincere Junior 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
57% · 96 games44% · 64 games
Troll Warlordrubikon155
Troll Warlord
Ursa
UrsaWatson
59% · 116 games40% · 206 games
Queen of Paingbc
Queen of Pain
Morphling
MorphlingChira JUNIOR
57% · 80 games42% · 96 games
Axekrol9ash
Axe
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
55% · 205 games46% · 202 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleMalady
57% · 71 gamelittle data
Treant ProtectorHyugadoto
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 94%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2