PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 3:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Liquidloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 38 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 37 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 29 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 46 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 31 game
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 28 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 26 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
579 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 541 bans
Tusk
432 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
422 picks · 289 bans
Shadow Demon
386 picks · 1012 bans
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 652 bans
Mars
369 picks · 575 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
Team Yandex 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterWatson
TinkerNisha
LargoDM
MarcimiCKe
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Centaur WarrunnerAce
WarlockMalady
TinyBoxi
Shadow ShamanSaksa
HoodwinktOfu
Game 2prediction missed43:7
Team Yandex 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWatson
Shadow FiendmiCKe
PhoenixDM
Ember SpiritNisha
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
BristlebackAce
JakiroMalady
RingmastertOfu
TinySaksa
TuskBoxi
Game 3prediction correct30:42
Team Yandex 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:12:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerChira JUNIOR
WindrangermiCKe
Shadow FiendWatson
BeastmasterNisha
PhoenixDM
BrewmasterAce
TinySaksa
WarlocktOfu
JakiroMalady
RingmasterBoxi
Game 4prediction correct1:23
Team Yandex 39%Team Liquid 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzWatson
HuskarNisha
PuckChira JUNIOR
UnderlordAce
Centaur WarrunnerDM
WindrangermiCKe
MuertaSaksa
TinkertOfu
OracleMalady
TinyBoxi
Game 5prediction missed42:21
Team Yandex 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 56:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaWatson
Shadow FiendmiCKe
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Void SpiritNisha
BristlebackDM
WarlocktOfu
JakiroMalady
TidehunterAce
Shadow DemonSaksa
TinyBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Yandex 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5