DreamLeague Season 27 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 3:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Spiritloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Tusksignature
Malady · 27 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 23 games
Warlock
Malady · 22 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 21 game
Ringmastersignature
rue · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
Jakiro
Panto · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
752 picks · 340 bans
Jakiro
601 picks · 578 bans
Hoodwink
600 picks · 304 bans
Dragon Knight
588 picks · 745 bans
Tusk
553 picks · 337 bans
Disruptor
542 picks · 532 bans
Centaur Warrunner
515 picks · 606 bans
Mars
504 picks · 763 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Team Yandex 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWatson
Phantom AssassinYatoro
AxeNoticed
InvokerLarl
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
TidehunterCollapse
Shadow DemonSaksa
WarlockPanto
Witch DoctorMalady
Tuskrue
Game 2prediction missed39:17
Team Yandex 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezWatson
MorphlingYatoro
ViperChira JUNIOR
Nature's ProphetLarl
TidehunterNoticed
Primal BeastCollapse
Shadow DemonMalady
WarlockPanto
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Clockwerkrue
Game 3prediction missed17:6
Team Yandex 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
WindrangerYatoro
TidehunterNoticed
AxeCollapse
TinyChira JUNIOR
Dragon KnightLarl
JakiroMalady
Shadow Demonrue
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Elder TitanPanto
Game 4prediction missed20:9
Team Yandex 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
Troll WarlordYatoro
TinyChira JUNIOR
Queen of PainLarl
SlardarNoticed
MarsCollapse
ChenMalady
Shadow Demonrue
Keeper of the LightSaksa
DisruptorPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Yandex 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4