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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 19 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Malady · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 16 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 15 games
60%

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
xNova · 14 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
XinQ · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
786 picks · 359 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 585 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
576 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 317 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
476 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 754 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Team Yandex 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
52% · 407 games52% · 259 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
42% · 320 games52% · 407 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
54% · 303 games51% · 188 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
52% · 257 games47% · 298 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSaksa
52% · 176 games46% · 311 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Team Yandex 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
45% · 213 games55% · 190 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Doom
DoomNoticed
43% · 145 games53% · 354 games
BeastmasterNothingToSay
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
47% · 154 games56% · 156 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
48% · 316 games51% · 381 game
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskMalady
51% · 347 games51% · 94 games
LichxNova
Lich
Game 3prediction correct31:27
Team Yandex 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
46% · 277 games52% · 520 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
47% · 192 games51% · 181 game
Shadow FiendNothingToSay
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
51% · 312 games56% · 251 game
EarthshakerXxs
Earthshaker
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
48% · 355 games46% · 371 game
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskMalady
52% · 332 games51% · 145 games
Nyx Assassinfy
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 57%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3