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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 34 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
657 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 569 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
415 picks · 221 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1155 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 633 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 263 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Team Yandex 65%Yakult Brothers 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWatson
49% · 167 games53% · 184 games
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
57% · 303 games51% · 380 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsNoticed
48% · 235 games48% · 247 games
Muertaflyfly
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
47% · 423 games51% · 365 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
53% · 244 games40% · 196 games
SilencerPoloson
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Team Yandex 66%Yakult Brothers 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWatson
52% · 168 games51% · 274 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeNoticed
48% · 113 games44% · 198 games
Gyrocopterflyfly
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingChira JUNIOR
50% · 263 games50% · 235 games
Batriderzeal
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
46% · 278 games45% · 203 games
JakiroPoloson
Jakiro
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMalady
62% · 142 games56% · 54 games
Night StalkerBoBoKa
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 74%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2