Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team YYFloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DYwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team YYF
No games played over 6 months.
Team DY
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
490 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 546 bans
Ringmaster
356 picks · 166 bans
Terrorblade
275 picks · 533 bans
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 511 bans
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 368 bans
Muerta
258 picks · 145 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team YYF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team DY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Team YYF 26%Team DY 74%
The model gave 74% on Team DY — the game was taken by Team DY in 29:27.
Game 2prediction correct10:23
Team YYF 26%Team DY 74%
The model gave 74% on Team DY — the game was taken by Team DY in 14:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DY · 74%
Series resultTeam DY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2