ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Go alongloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
7e · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Warlocksignature
zzq · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Cty · 5 games
Go along
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
TK · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Mars
Killa · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
217 picks · 250 bans
Dark Willow
215 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 406 bans
Phoenix
181 picks · 241 bans
Treant Protector
177 picks · 402 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Earth Spirit
170 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:31
Team Zero 64%Go along 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiCty
BrewmasterKilla
Queen of Pain7e
WeaverTK
Night StalkerBEYOND
Muertaiceice
Treant Protectorzzq
Game 2prediction correct48:47
Team Zero 66%Go along 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 56:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzle7e
DawnbreakerKilla
BrewmasterBEYOND
PhoenixTK
Wraith KingCty
Muertaiceice
Treant Protectorzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 76%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2