ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeamlessloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CCastawakewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Teamless
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Cije · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
db- · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 1 game
Marsoften banned
db- · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Varizh · 1 game
Castawake
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
455 picks · 594 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 413 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
Luna
328 picks · 400 bans
Enchantress
309 picks · 597 bans
Dark Willow
296 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 344 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 785 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Castawake
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Teamless
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
Teamless 54%Castawake 46%
The model gave 54% on Teamless — the game was taken by Castawake in 29:08.
Game 2prediction missed11:35
Teamless 54%Castawake 46%
The model gave 54% on Teamless — the game was taken by Castawake in 23:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamless · 54%
Series resultCastawake 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2