The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 17 games
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 11 games
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
550 picks · 425 bans
Marci
457 picks · 669 bans
Puck
332 picks · 753 bans
Dawnbreaker
329 picks · 452 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 838 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Tempest 25%Polaris Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 23:41.
Game 2prediction correct38:6
Tempest 25%Polaris Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 20:56.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 75%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2