Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 10 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
Techies
bgod · 9 games
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Overlom · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Husky · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Husky · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
ZfreeK · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 437 bans
Mars
481 picks · 696 bans
Bane
452 picks · 297 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 610 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 606 bans
Sand King
367 picks · 528 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 72%
Hero pool strength65% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total91% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
The Cut 25%nouns 75%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckhigh_shaggy
TinyCostabile
JuggernautScourge McDuck
SvenMoo
DawnbreakerRajjix
MarciGunnar
Zeusbgod
EnigmaZfreeK
WarlockJubei
ViperHusky
Game 2prediction missed34:47
The Cut 23%nouns 77%
The model gave 77% on nouns — the game was taken by The Cut in 1:03:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzScourge McDuck
ZeusGunnar
Necrophoshigh_shaggy
LycanCostabile
BeastmasterRajjix
EnigmaZfreeK
DawnbreakerJubei
MarciMoo
Shadow Shamanbgod
Winter WyvernHusky
Game 3prediction correct20:43
The Cut 24%nouns 76%
The model gave 76% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreScourge McDuck
Templar AssassinCostabile
Necrophoshigh_shaggy
PangolierGunnar
EarthshakerRajjix
TinyMoo
Skywrath Magebgod
SnapfireHusky
ClockwerkJubei
EnigmaZfreeK
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 91%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3