Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionTLThe Last Darkwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Last Dark
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Silencer
strawberry · 4 games
Void Spirit
poyoyo · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Team Zero
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
zzq · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Cty · 4 games
Void Spirit
7e · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
700 picks · 483 bans
Techies
582 picks · 629 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1103 bans
Disruptor
546 picks · 502 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
478 picks · 1044 bans
Enchantress
462 picks · 679 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 79%
Hero pool strength53% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:19
The Last Dark 43%Team Zero 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Zero — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosEcho
Naga SirenCty
Bloodseekerpoyoyo
Timbersaw7e
BroodmotherShining
TidehunterBEYOND
Spirit Breakerstrawberry
Rubickiceice
48% · 127 games
Undyingzzq
Game 2prediction missed28:15
The Last Dark 45%Team Zero 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Zero — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
LycanBEYOND
DoomShining
WindrangerCty
Primal BeastEcho
Timbersaw7e
Venomancerstrawberry
Keeper of the Lighticeice
50% · 246 games
Clockwerkzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 62%
Series resultThe Last Dark 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2