DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionTOThe Outcastwin 1:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTbIIIIa_HA_CAnAXloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Outcast
No games played over 6 months.
TbIIIIa_HA_CAnAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
562 picks · 644 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 682 bans
Snapfire
453 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 528 bans
Hoodwink
428 picks · 203 bans
Mars
392 picks · 525 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% The Outcast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% The Outcast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:31
The Outcast 63%TbIIIIa_HA_CAnAX 37%
The model gave 63% on The Outcast — the game was taken by The Outcast in 49:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Outcast · 63%
Series resultThe Outcast 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1