Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
The Primeloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cignal Ultrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Prime
No games played over 6 months.
Cignal Ultra
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Sand King
Jamesy · 2 games
Ursa
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Bloodseeker
Abat · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Abat · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
13 picks · 15 bans
Earth Spirit
11 picks · 8 bans
Mars
11 picks · 27 bans
Crystal Maiden
10 picks · 0 bans
Monkey King
10 picks · 13 bans
Puck
10 picks · 26 bans
Mirana
9 picks · 12 bans
Ember Spirit
8 picks · 10 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% The Prime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% The Prime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:30
The Prime 59%Cignal Ultra 41%
The model gave 59% on The Prime — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingRusman
Phantom AssassinAbat
PuckBARBIE-Usagi
Dragon KnightJamesy
MagnusAzur4
GrimstrokeVarizh
Game 2prediction missed20:34
The Prime 60%Cignal Ultra 40%
The model gave 60% on The Prime — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiRusman
Phantom AssassinAbat
PuckAzur4
Dragon KnightJamesy
MagnusBARBIE-Usagi
ClockwerkVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Prime · 65%
Series resultCignal Ultra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2