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BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 21 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
50%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 34 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
dnm · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 11 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
591 picks · 386 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
529 picks · 517 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 429 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
410 picks · 481 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 364 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
344 picks · 183 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 750 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 200 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Thunder Awaken 56%5RATFORCESTAFF 44%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
52% · 179 games49% · 294 games
Marcidnm
Marci
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlone
49% · 196 games61% · 128 games
BroodmotherSpeeed
Broodmother
Mars
MarsILICH-
45% · 247 games46% · 207 games
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMichael
54% · 122 games47% · 338 games
RubickLil_Nick
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireAccel
45% · 338 games55% · 115 games
Silenceralbinozebra
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed25:39
Thunder Awaken 55%5RATFORCESTAFF 45%
The model gave 55% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 47:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
39% · 31 game55% · 228 games
Leshracred2
Leshrac
Mars
MarsILICH-
50% · 125 games50% · 48 games
Spectrednm
Spectre
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAlone
39% · 151 game54% · 147 games
BroodmotherSpeeed
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyMichael
48% · 259 games53% · 94 games
Warlockalbinozebra
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroAccel
57% · 25 games59% · 74 games
RikiLil_Nick
Riki
Game 3prediction missed20:33
Thunder Awaken 57%5RATFORCESTAFF 43%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomSmiling Knight
47% · 79 games58% · 130 games
Leshracred2
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderAlone
52% · 124 games48% · 80 games
Slarkdnm
Slark
Broodmother
BroodmotherILICH-
48% · 83 games45% · 78 games
TidehunterSpeeed
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMichael
63% · 36 games49% · 72 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAccel
42% · 100 games53% · 62 games
RikiLil_Nick
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 64%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3