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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 33 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
81%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 16 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
100%

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
87%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 13 games
69%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
91%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
694 picks · 499 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
495 picks · 985 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
404 picks · 514 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 194 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
368 picks · 680 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 539 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 297 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
302 picks · 631 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:24
Thunder Awaken 32%LGD Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
51% · 319 games46% · 58 games
Wraith KingAme
Wraith King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
51% · 41 game49% · 93 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskMatthew
48% · 119 games50% · 116 games
RazorFaith_bian
Razor
Dazzle
DazzlePanda
50% · 75 games49% · 216 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
56% · 71 game
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct29:28
Thunder Awaken 33%LGD Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
56% · 95 games43% · 226 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSacred
43% · 116 games49% · 78 games
BristlebackAme
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyMatthew
48% · 271 game49% · 111 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
60% · 89 games54% · 49 games
Cheny`
Chen
51% · 107 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2